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How to memorize odds

I actually LOVE this method for calculating odds, becauseit's fast and EASY.

However, just like anything else, it has some pitfalls...

So basically, what you're saying is that you can calculatethe PERCENTAGE CHANCE you have of making your hand byDOUBLING the NUMBER OF OUTS and adding one:

(OUTS X 2) + 1 = % of getting a card you need

Remember, "outs" refers to the number of cards in the deckthat will complete (or "make") your hand.

For example, let's say you're holding J-10 and the boardreads:
8-9-2

That means either a seven or a Queen will complete yourstraight. Since there are four sevens and four Queens in thedeck, you have EIGHT OUTS.

OK... so let's take a look at how this works:

First, let me give you the REAL percentages for eachsituation. I've created a chart.

The first column is how many OUTS you have. The second isyour chance of hitting on the TURN card. And the thirdcolumn is your chance of hitting on the RIVER card.

OK, so here's the chart:

-------------------------
OUTS    TURN       RIVER

 1      2.13%      2.17%
 2      4.26%      4.35%
 3      6.38%      6.52%
 4      8.51%      8.70%
 5      10.64%     10.87%
 6      12.77%     13.04%
 7      14.89%     15.22%
 8      17.02%     17.39%
 9      19.15%     19.57%
 10     21.23%     21.47%
 11     23.40%     23.91%
 12     25.53%     26.09%
 13     27.66%     28.26%
 14     29.79%     30.43%
 15     31.91%     32.61%
 16     34.04%     34.76%
 17     36.17%     36.96%
 18     38.30%     39.13%
 19     40.43%     41.30%
 20     42.55%     43.48%
 21     44.68%     45.65%
-------------------------

As you can see, the formula holds true... for the most part.

If you have three outs or fewer, there's really no need toadd one.
But then again, if you have three outs or fewer, youprobably shouldn't be calculating odds... you should beFOLDING instead!

And if you have more than ELEVEN outs, you should probablyadd TWO, instead of one.

So... to break it down:

1-3 Outs: Outs x 2 = % of hitting

3-11 Outs: (Outs x 2) + 1 = % of hitting

12+  Outs: (Outs X 2) + 2 = % of hitting

So already we're getting kind of complicated, and thesearen't even giving us EXACT numbers.

However... here is why this simple little formula is SOPOWERFUL:

For the most part, in REAL LIFE poker situations, the timeswhere you want to calculate odds are in situations where youhave about 3-11 outs.

Think about it... in order to have MORE than eleven outs,you'd have to have something like an open-ended straightdraw AND a flush draw. And that's a situation where youshould probably be aggressively BETTING or RAISING... notdoing math.

OK... so now you know how to QUICKLY and EASILY figure outthe odds of making your hand. What REAL VALUE does this addto your game?

The answer is, "Not much."

You must know how to APPLY this knowledge to bet sizes...that way you can make the right decision on whether to call,raise, or fold.


*** HOW TO CALCULATE "BETTING PERCENTAGE" ***

So now we need to learn how to calculate "bettingpercentage". Luckily, this is very simple.

The two numbers you need to compare are:

1. Bet size
2. Pot size

The FORMULA is this:

Bet Size / (Pot Size + Bet Size)

For example, let's say there's $90 in the pot and the bet is$10. The betting percentage would be $10 divided by $100($90 + $10)... or 10%.

If you were looking at it strictly in terms of odds, you'dsay your chances were 90:10.

90:10 means you'd miss 90 times and hit 10 times. That's atotal of making it 10 times out of 100 times, which equals10%.

Now... the FINAL part to all of this is to compare your HANDODDS to your BETTING ODDS.

If you have a higher percentage chance of MAKING your handthan the betting percentage, you should call...

Let's look at some examples to make sense of all thismadness...

Example:

You've got A-2 of diamonds and the flop hits:

5d-Qd-Ks

That means there are two diamonds on the board and two inyour hand... so you've got the nut flush draw.

You're on the button. There's $40 in the pot from before theflop. Don bets $20 after the flop and three players call.The action is to you.

So the pot size equals $120, and you need to decide whetherto call or not.

If you based your decision strictly on odds, here's how itwould look:

You have nine OUTS... since there are thirteen diamonds inthe deck and you already see four of them (13 minus 4 = 9).

So we plug NINE into our handy formula...
9 x 2 = 18
Add 1 = 19% chance of making the flush

Now... if we look at the chart (we don't need to), we seethat the real percentage is 19.15%.

Presto. Works like a charm.

Now we just need to compare the bet size and pot size tofind our "betting percentage".

The bet size is $20 and there's $120 in the pot.

So we divide $20 by $140 ($120 + $20).

We don't even need to do the math. We just need to figureout if it's BIGGER or SMALLER than 19% (which can be roundedto 20%).

Obviously, 20/140 is smaller than 20%.

The conclusion?

Well that means our odds of GETTING another diamond andcompleting our hand are HIGHER than the betting percentage.
This means our pot odds are GOOD. We should call or raise...but not fold.

OK, now for another quick example:

Let's say we've got K-J of spades and the flop hits:
Ah-10d-4c

No spades... but we have an inside straight draw. All weneed is the Queen.

Let's use the same numbers from the last example:

Pot Size = $120
Bet Size = $20

Should we fold or call?

20/140 equals 1/7. We need to figure out if our odds ofhitting our inside straight are higher or lower.

Well, since the only card that can really help us is aQueen, we have FOUR outs (the four Queens).

So we double the four and add one...

(4 x 2) + 1 = 9% of getting our Queen on the turn.

The REAL percentage is 8.51%. Pretty close.

So what's bigger... 1/7 or 9%?

The answer is 1/7.

I always just round numbers to keep it simple. In my mind,9% is about 10%, which would be 1/10. Obviously 1/7 ishigher than 1/10.

So that means our betting percentage is higher than our handodds... which is bad.
So we fold.

In order to call, the betting percentage would have neededto be LOWER than 9%. And as you know, that's VERY RARE.

So... that's it. That's the "quick and dirty" way tocalculate pot odds. Here's the 3-step review:

1. Double your outs and add 1. This equals your approximatepercentage of "hitting".

2. Divide the bet size by the pot size added to the betsize. (Bet Size / [Pot Size + Bet Size])

3. Compare the "hand odds" to the "bet odds". If the handodds are higher, you should stay in the hand. If the handodds are smaller, get out.

That's it.

At first some of this may seem like an awful lot of work andeffort... and requires extra THINKING.

But if you're serious about poker, you've got to try thesetypes of things. What you'll discover is that after usingthis stuff for a little while, it all becomes NATURAL in notime.
And soon you'll never have to actually do ANY of this.

For example... after figuring it out a couple times, you'llquickly learn that you should NOT chase inside straights.It's not worth it.

Also, you shouldn't stay in a hand with just an Ace highhoping to hit top pair (unless it's a heads-up match orsomething).

And so on.

But the BAD NEWS is that calculating odds doesn't alwaysgive you clear cut "answers". Odds are just another piece ofthe puzzle... to be added to your poker "weapons".

In the first example I shared with you, we were on the nutflush draw with multiple players in the hand. This is asituation where the IMPLIED ODDS are so enormous that the
"real" odds don't matter.

Because think about it: If you hit your flush, someone ELSEprobably hit it too... except you'll have the NUTS. Thismeans you're very likely to get someone's ENTIRE chip stack.

Also... odds don't tell you whether to CALL or RAISE. As youknow, raising is a key part of the game, and can often buyyou a "free card" while on a draw.

And in the same way, it's not even really "possible" tocalculate the exact number of OUTS or the exact POT SIZE.

For instance... if there are three opponents in a hand andtwo diamonds on the board, you'd better believe SOMEONE ELSEis holding two diamonds. So you don't REALLY have nineouts... since more than four diamonds are being used.

If you aren't last to act, the exact pot size is unknownbecause you DON'T KNOW what the player(s) behind you willdo. They may fold, they may call, or they may RAISE.

These are the EXACT reasons why the game of Texas Holdem isso complex and unpredictable... and exciting. And it's also
why I recommend using a tool like Calculatem Pro.

You see, Calculatem Pro doesn't just give you the straight"odds". It also includes ADVICE, takes into considerationIMPLIED odds, and uses "smart logic" to adjust for thehuman element of the game.

Once again, Calculatem Pro won't always have all the right
answers... but it sure helps!

And if you haven't already done so, be sure to download my"No Limit Holdem Secrets" eBook course.
My course will give you the skill sets you need to become anabsolute POWERHOUSE at the poker tables... by combining allthe different elements into one congruent game strategy.

You'll get step-by-step examples of pro-level tactics thatYou can use... starting tonight.

But I'll be honest, the course ISN'T for everyone.

It's only for players who are SERIOUS enough to "invest" intheir game... and who are willing to put these techniquesinto good use.

If that's you... if you've made profits at the poker tableand are ready to take things to the "next level", just clickhere for my course:

Written by Roy Rounder

Gametype

Texas Hold'em	Omaha
7 card stud	5 card stud
5 card draw	Omaha Hi / Lo
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